A sucker is born every minute. Are you one?

Hey,

I hope you’re doing okay.

As these letters near the 1-year anniversary, I’m constantly thinking about how to improve them. There a quite a number of things I could write about: Business, Venture capital, Strategy etc. However, I feel there’s a lot of content out there about those topics.

But I often find that I don’t know enough about myself and the world I live in and that feels a lot more exciting to write about. That was the focus when I started these letters and that focus remains.

To explore these two themes and as an added benefit, also help you understand yourself and the world you live in. It’s been an incredible year so far and I promise that I’ll continuously work on improving the value you find in these letters.

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• Interested in attending a Meet & Greet to celebrate MIMH’s one-year anniversary? Indicate here.

• Got ideas on how I can improve the letters? Let me know here.

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To get started today, I’ll like you to answer these 5 questions. It’ll only take 30 seconds and you need it to go forward in today’s letter.

Answer the questions

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Welcome back

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As humans, we like positive statements about ourselves. If I told you two statements:

Statement 1

You are a very bad listener, and you do not take other people seriously when they have an idea.

Statment 2

You care for other people and show empathy when they need you.

You are more likely to describe the second statement as true than the first one.

There is a phenomenon that takes this to the next level. It is a phenomenon that occurs when individuals believe that personality descriptions apply specifically to them (more so than to other people), despite the fact that the description is actually filled with information that applies to everyone.

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If you look at statement 2 more closely, you'll likely agree with me that it applies to almost everyone or a large group of people. However, when you first read it, it felt personal to you.

This phenomenon is called the Barnum Effect or Forer effect.

In the survey I asked you to take, I can predict that more than 50% of the people who take the survey will rate the last question (Overall, how accurately do you think these statements describe you?) above 4.

This effect was studied by the psychologist Bertram Forer in 1948. He gave his 39 students a personality test. After they took the tests though, the results he gave them were random answers that he took from an astrology newspaper and they were the same for all the students.

He however told the students that the results were their unique results from the tests they took. He then asked them to rate how accurate they thought the results were on a scale of 1 to 5.

All the students rated the results above 4.2.

This phenomenon is the reason why a lot of people believe, horoscopes, fortune tellers, psychics, (fake pastors) etc. These people make general statements that are true for everyone but seem personal to you.

Let me give you another one.

Let's say you meet a prophet for the first time and he says these words to you:

"You have a great deal of energy when handling problems that you face in your life. However, you are not yet aware of your capacity. I recommend you to give some time to discover this side of yourself and you will see what I mean.”

You can connect with these words and you might even wonder how he/she knows so much about you. In many instances, people will want to hear more and unethical actors might take advantage of such people.

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There are three attributes of situations that make usage of the Barnum effect stronger:

1. Personal analysis: If the statement is something that relates to your person or your experience in life, you are likely to believe it.

2. Positivity: As humans, we like being told good things about ourselves and we reject criticism. Bad actors know this and will use a lot of positive words to lure us in.

3. Perceived Authority: The effect is stronger if the person saying those words is some sort of authority or present themselves as such. A doctor, some with a certification, a pastor, a respected individual etc.

People seek comfort, encouragement and look for an escape from the real world with the comforting, positive statements made for them in the name of astrology. Source

I found this effect interesting because as 'learned' as I might claim I am, I fell to this effect.

Another example of the effect in play is the use of "Personalization" or "For You" in social media and entertainment apps.

On Spotify/Apple Music/YouTube/Netflix, you have a "For You" segment that looks personalized to you. We feel special that it is customized to us and this drives us to use the product more.

In reality, we are not the only ones getting that recommendation. Thousands or millions of other people who play the same songs or movies as us are getting that exact same recommendation. In our minds though, it's custom made for us.

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In some cases, the Barnum effect is put to good use. Horoscope sites give daily generic texts that make people feel better and inspired. Apps allow us to enjoy more things that we like and more.

However, bad actors can also use this effect to manipulate us. A fortune teller can rope you in with good things about yourself and make generic predictions. When those generic predictions come to pass, our belief in them deepens. The same thing goes for fake pastors which is endemic in Nigeria.

Some people make important life decisions based on the Barnum statements that these people have mastered. And things might not turn out great for these people.

So how can we potentially avoid them?

1. The first step is to be aware. Share this effect with your friends and loved ones. When people are aware, they are more likely to analyse such situations better.

2. Be conscious of vague/generic statements that may apply to anyone. When a horoscope or fortune teller says something, ask yourself if that statement could be true for everyone else.

3. Pay attention to the content of the statements. If they are mostly positive with very few negative statements, that person is likely onto something. Take a step back and assess before you make important decisions.

People who are experts at using the Barnum effects to their favour have had years of practise and centuries of insights on how to make them work. You can however shake them off by being aware and analyzing their statements.

Like PT. Barnum (the 19th-century showman, who the Greatest Showman movie is modelled after) once said: "A sucker is born every minute".

Don't be one of them.

Do me a favour and share this letter with someone you know will get value from it.

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This letter was written while listening to Peru by Fireboy Dml.

Love,

Francis.