Dunning Kruger Effect - Why are the ignorant so bold?

And how can we counter this effect?

Hey, I hope you’re doing okay.

Sending all of my love and positive energy to you in this new week.

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The year is 1995. A man walks into a bank to rob it. He's not wearing a mask. He looks proudly at the CCTV cameras while robbing the bank.

When he's done robbing this bank, he proceeds to rob the next bank down the street and drives home proudly after a successful heist.

In the evening, he hears a knock on the door and to his utter shock, the police are there to arrest him for the robberies. Confused, he shouts "But I wore the juice".

McArthur Wheeler had read somewhere that lemon juice is used as invisible ink. So he thought to himself that rubbing it on his face should have the same effect and substitute for a mask.

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Well, he probably should have read a couple more Wikipedia pages :)

This episode is an example of a cognitive bias called the Dunning Kruger effect. It's the phenomenon that the less competent we are in a given area, the more likely we are to unknowingly exaggerate our competence.

When we lack knowledge about something, we are unaware of the fact that we lack knowledge about it. And if asked about it, we'll likely claim to have more knowledge about the subject matter.

On the flip end of this, the effect also states that people who are experts in a particular subject area are likely to underestimate their own abilities. They assume that everyone else has the same knowledge as they do.

You probably see this effect play out on social media every day. People with little knowledge about something are likely more vocal and brash about their opinions. In many cases, they'll even go head to toe with an expert arguing about the topic. In many cases, dismissing the expert's opinion.

In 1999, David Dunning and Justin Kruger performed experiments to identify this effect. They found that people in the bottom 25% quartile (Bottom 25 of 100 people) of a skill when asked to grade their performance often placed themselves in the top 75% quartile.

People who had actual expertise in the 75% quartile actually tended to rate themselves below their actual ability.

I find this effect interesting because it perhaps also explains why less competent people are likely to be more charismatic and confident in different areas of life. And because these two traits are things that people look out for in leaders, less competent people are more likely to be in decision making positions than their more competent colleagues.

"If you're incompetent, you can't know you're incompetent ... The skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is"

The thing though is that the Dunning Kruger affects us all. There are different areas of life and our expertise in each will always vary. We're all however likely to overestimate our abilities in our areas of incompetence.

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The thing though is that the Dunning Kruger affects us all. There are different areas of life and our expertise in each will always vary. We're all however likely to overestimate our abilities in our areas of incompetence.

Another example of this that comes to mind is when people are asked to rate their Microsoft Excel/Powerpoint skills. In many situations where I've observed people responding to this answer, most people would rate themselves 3/4 out of 5. In reality, most users of the software actually rank less than 2 on the proficiency scale.

Research has however shown that when incompetent people are given a little training about the skill, it improves their ability to grade themselves properly.

A group of people were asked to participate in a logic test. After the test, the bottom 10% of performers rated themselves in the top 60%. However, when they were given a little training about the logic test and asked to re-evaluate themselves, they graded themselves closer to their actual abilities.

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Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than knowledge. - Charles Darwin

So one way for you to battle the Dunning Kruger effect is by not being so quick to make conclusive assertions in topics you don't know enough about (especially on social media). Then, if possible, try to learn a thing or two about that topic and you are likely to be more conscious of your actual abilities.

People usually admit to their deficits once they can spot them.

Dunning & Kruger also found that in the workplace, poor performers are less likely to accept feedback and find ways to improve themselves. Their ignorance makes them assume that they are actually great at the skill and they assume the person giving feedback is just being critical.

If this applies to you in any way, this will be an opportunity to be aware of the effect behind it and become open to feedback.

Some people can fake it for a long time and get away with it. But my guess is that you'll rather prefer to be in a position where you underestimate your ability and can actually get things done as opposed to being confident in ignorance.

This letter was written while listening to Driving in the Rain by Johnny Drille & Ladipoe.

Love always,

Francis Sani.